GBP/USD. Trump is going to vaccinate some categories of the population on November 1.


The US currency continues to win back the positions lost in recent months and the news continues to flow from the States. Most of the news is completely unclear. However, let's start with the news flow from the UK, where everything is simple. First, traders continue to ignore most of the news coming from the Foggy Albion. The same applies to macroeconomic statistics, which are ignored by traders. Market participants do not want to "remember" all the economic problems of the UK, which the country has already faced and may still face in the very near future. Among the pressing issues, we highlight the very high probability of a new easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England in the second half of 2020. Despite the fact that Andrew Bailey assured the markets that he is not going to introduce negative rates this week, everyone understands that if the situation requires it, the Bank of England will introduce them. As for the new expansion of the quantitative stimulus program, there is almost no doubt that this will happen. You should also pay attention to another failed round of negotiations between the groups of David Frost and Michel Barnier. London and Brussels again failed to agree on any of the key issues, and London's unwillingness to concede is visible to the naked eye from the speech of Frost, who managed to "positively assess the results of the negotiations", but at the same time "note the lack of progress". We have been asking ourselves for several weeks why we should continue negotiations at all if they do not bring any results? However, Frost and Barnier know better.

All these topics that are fundamental to the UK and the pound remain in the shadow of the "four American crises", which clearly concern traders more. The elections in the United States remain the hottest topic because it matters to everyone who will become the next president of the country with the largest economy in the world. At least because it affects the foreign policy of the United States, which concerns every other individual country. The only chance for Donald Trump to raise his political ratings before the election remains the invention of a vaccine against the "coronavirus". Americans remember how their president treated the epidemic in its first months, all his masterful comments that "the coronavirus is no worse than a cold", that it "will disappear in the warm season". Many people were misled by the president's carelessness. People did not observe the quarantine. They did not listen to the country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, and other doctors who openly clashed with Trump over his attitude to the "coronavirus". As a result, almost 190,000 deaths from this disease were recorded in the United States. Every day in the United States, 40-50 thousand new cases continue to be recorded, which is extremely high even for such a huge country like America. Trump continues to try to reassure Americans, saying that a vaccine will soon be found, and the death rate from the virus has "decreased by 87%". Trump's comments in the first months of the pandemic were absurd and untrue. Many statistical companies and publications like YouGov and the Washington Post have calculated that during his presidency, Trump was misled by his comments at least 20,000 times. Thus, few people believe the US leader now. All 50 states of the country have received instructions from the US Department of Health to prepare for vaccination from COVID-2019 on November 1. Recall that the presidential elections will be held on the third of November. You don't have to be an analytical genius to see the political implications of this decision. According to documents that were sent to the governments of all American states by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the vaccine will be given first of all to employees of medical institutions, people over 65 years of age, and those who are in high-risk groups. At the same time, many epidemiologists have already criticized such an initiative of the White House, since none of the three vaccines currently being developed has passed all the necessary clinical trials. There simply wasn't enough time for this, as some tests last for several months. Many epidemiologists fear that states will start vaccinating with an unverified vaccine that may not be safe for people's health. Side effects may not appear immediately but after some time. No one knows for sure, since there was no necessary research. However, Trump is going to start vaccination at any cost, and this is just the case when it is unclear whether it is good if the vaccine is invented in America before November 3? In general, we can only monitor the development of the situation and hope that common sense will still prevail over the desire to get power for another 4 years.

Based on this, we would say that only technical factors speak in favor of further strengthening of the US currency. Namely, the technical need for a correction after fairly strong growth of the British currency. The fundamental situation in America is not changing. In the UK – also does not change and is still ignored. Accordingly, if it is the fundamental background that led the pound to its eight-month highs, then this background can continue to have a positive impact on the pound. Moreover, according to the Ichimoku indicator, the price worked out the Senkou Span B line and bounced off it. Thus, there are also reasons to assume the end of the downward correction and the resumption of the upward trend.


Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar pair corrected to the Senkou Span B line and failed to overcome it on the first attempt. Thus, there are reasons to assume that the upward movement will resume, but as confirmation, we should wait for the price to consolidate above the critical Kijun-sen line. Bears will get a new opportunity to sell the pair only if the price still goes below the Senkou Span B line. We also note that in recent months, the pair has had serious difficulties updating previous local lows. Therefore, it is not a fact that the quotes will be able to fall below the level of 1.3050.

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