Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continued to correct last Thursday night against the downward movement that happened a couple of days ago. We have already said that, from our point of view, the fall was unreasonable, since US President Donald Trump's refusal to negotiate with the Democrats on a new aid package for the American economy is a bearish factor for the dollar, not a bullish one. Nevertheless, the dollar rose in price, and in the next two days traders were strenuously correcting their mistake. And now we can say that the error has been corrected, and the price has returned to its original positions. The only problem is that the euro/dollar pair managed to settle below the upward trend line and it broke the upward trend. Formally, of course, we can once again rebuild the trend line so that the last cycle of the downward trend can enterit. However, you cannot constantly rebuild trend lines, otherwise they will lose all meaning. Moreover, we are not even certain if the euro will continue to grow, although its positions look much more convincing than those of the dollar. Thus, we still expect a new round of the downward movement and wait for a downward reversal of the MACD indicator.
The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains the same. As we expected, traders did not react to yesterday's publication of the Federal Reserve minutes. This happens almost every time, because it does not provide new information. The Fed minutes is just a summary of the results of the last meeting, that's all. As for today, there are few planned events. We can only take note of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos' speech, who from time to time makes important statements, as well as the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, now we can already assume that the market will not react to any of these events either. Therefore, technical factors will come first today. Even those that generally influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair are left with little. We continue to advise traders to keep track of any news from the White House and from Trump personally. Markets do not respond well to any election-related news, but you should not miss important messages. Take note that, in general, the fundamental background is currently negative for the dollar. Traders and investors are wary of large and long-term buy positions on the US currency due to the sheer uncertainty surrounding America, its future and the future of its economy. Therefore, in general, we do not expect the dollar to sharply grow in the coming month.
Possible scenarios for October 8:
1) Buying the EUR/USD pair has ceased to be relevant at the moment since the price settled below the rising trend line. Now, in order to consider them again, you need to wait for a new upward trend or some strong buy signals, such as a rebound from the 1.1696 level. You can only consider new long positions in this case.
2) Sell positions became available for consideration, after the trend changed to a downward one. Earlier, we advised novice traders to wait for an upward correction and its completion. Today 50% of this condition has been fulfilled, we only need to wait for a signal from the MACD to sell and open short positions while aiming for support levels of 1.1731 and 1.1700. Don't forget about placing Stop Loss orders - they can be placed above the last high of 1.1782.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com