Forecast for AUD/USD on August 9, 2021


Last Friday, the Australian dollar fell along with other counter-dollar currencies, shedding 47 points. This morning the price tested the nearest embedded line of the price channel - the 0.7330 target was reached.


The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator met the border of the downward trend area. The aussie needs to do more to overcome this border. Perhaps today, work will be carried out to concentrate forces before this decline. The target is the lower border of the target channel at 0.7262. Taking into account the 0.7244 target's (high on October 9, 2020) proximity to this border, a short-term price exit from the price channel is possible. Consolidation below it, however, will lead to a deeper decline to the target level of 0.7124.


On the four-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator are turning upward as part of a corrective rally. Typical resistance in this situation is the MACD line at 0.7364, but by analogy with the period of July 26-28, marked on the chart with a gray rectangle, a short-term price exit above the MACD line is possible, which will subsequently be interpreted as a false exit.

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