GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 23.6% on the small Fibo grid, a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3830). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British and some growth in the direction of the level of 23.6% - 1.3884. Closing the pair's exchange rate at 1.3830 will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3776). There was no information background on Monday for the British and Americans. During the day, no single interesting news was received. Thus, traders are forced to wait for any economic reports released in the UK or the US. Although in the case of the pound/dollar pair, I still can't say that Monday was very boring.
If the euro/dollar was practically immobilized, the pound/dollar was still in motion. But it is still quite difficult to predict the further movement of the pair since the information picture is not quite clear. Unrelated news comes from both the UK and the US, but I can't conclude that they have at least some influence on the pair's exchange rate. I have already said earlier that London continues to be in a confrontation mode with Brussels over Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol. Meanwhile, in the US, the number of cases of infection with the delta strain of coronavirus is growing. Heated battles continue in Congress over raising the public debt limit to avoid bankruptcy of the country and two funding packages aimed at infrastructure development and solving social issues. However, how does this news help the pound or the dollar? That is why now it is better to analyze the graphical picture of the pair more, although it is far from ideal now.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). This closure allows us to count on a further drop in quotes in the direction of 38.2% (1.3829) and 23.6% (1.3729) on the small Fibo grid. The rebound of the pair's quotes from any of these levels will favor the British and the beginning of growth. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States do not contain a single interesting entry. All the most important reports are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Today, there will be no information background.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from August 3 on the British dollar showed that the mood of major players changed to "bullish," as speculators opened 3,370 long contracts and closed 3,735 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts on their hands again exceeds the total number of short contracts. Such a change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders may mean that major players are not ready for further sales of the British dollar. If so, then the British currency may begin to be in demand again among speculators. I also want to note that the total number of long and short contracts for all traders is now almost the same. Therefore, bull traders still do not have a strong advantage yet.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I do not recommend buying a pair since it is in a position where it is very difficult to expect new growth in quotes. There are no signals for the Briton to buy now. It was recommended to sell the pound on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3830. This level is almost reached. New sales are possible when closing below the level of 1.3830 with a target of 1.3776.
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com