Forecast for GBP/USD on August 19. COT report. Bear traders showed their strength by taking the level of 1.3730.



According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound first from the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3731), and then a rebound from 50.0% (1.3776) on the small Fibo grid. As a result, the pair turned in favor of the US currency and closed under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3731. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued toward the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3668). The British currency and the European one began a new fall after the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting late yesterday. Without going into details, I can note that the probability of curtailing the asset purchase program in the near future after the publication of the protocol has increased even more. However, so far, there has been no comment on this from Fed President Jerome Powell. This week, one of his performances has already taken place. However, during Powell's communication with representatives of the education sector, other issues were discussed, not those of interest to traders. Thus, the nearest event now at which Powell will be able to announce his opinion on the change in monetary policy parameters and the QE program is the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will be held next week. Let me remind you that many traders now consider the factor of curtailing the QE program in the US to be the most important for the US currency. I assume that it is precisely because of this factor that the US dollar grows in recent weeks. At least, it isn't easy to distinguish other factors now. Thus, as long as the markets' faith in the cancellation of the QE program is alive, the US currency can continue its growth. However, this belief will have to be confirmed by real facts, for example, in the words of Jerome Powell about his readiness to curtail the QE program in 2021. If this does not happen, it is unlikely that traders will continue to buy the dollar. It is unlikely that the US currency will continue to grow over the next weeks if Powell does not confirm his readiness to switch to a tighter monetary policy.



The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3730) on the small Fibo grid. The rebound from this level allowed the quotes to perform a small increase, after which the pair again turned in favor of the US currency and closed at 1.3730, which now will enable traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642) on the senior Fibo grid. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.

News calendar for the USA and the UK:

US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).

On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK is empty. In the US, it is almost empty. Therefore, the information background of today will be extremely weak.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:


The latest COT report from August 10 on the British dollar showed that the mood of major players has changed to "bullish" and is now strengthening, as speculators closed 1,872 long contracts and 5,480 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts on their hands exceeds the number of short contracts, and the gap between the categories increases. Such a change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders may mean that major players are not ready for further sales of the British dollar. The British currency has already begun to be in demand again among speculators. However, the bulls still do not have a strong advantage since the "Non-commercial" group has only 6 thousand more long contracts than short.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3668 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3731 and 1.3776. Sales of the pound were recommended with a target of 1.3668 if a close is made under 1.3731 on the hourly chart. Now, these transactions should be kept open.


"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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